Illustrative Example · Synthetic Data

A program review built for a decision.

Summit Demonstration Program is fictional. All figures illustrate report structure and analytical reasoning, not a client engagement, contract award or achieved result.

Download the Synthetic Review Pack
KEYSTONEREPORTING GROUPIllustrative Example · Synthetic Data
Summit Demonstration Program · Period 06Program Performance Review
Forecast at Completion
$13.13M
$12.00M budget
Cost Efficiency · CPI
0.90
EV ÷ actual cost
Schedule Index · SPI
0.96
EV ÷ planned value
Planned Value$5.00M
Earned Value$4.80M
Actual Cost$5.33M
Management Attention

Cost is outpacing earned progress. Review the remaining labor mix and the assumptions supporting the $7.80M estimate to complete.

Forecast reconciliation · USD millions; rounded to two decimals
MeasureAmountCalculation
Budget at Completion$12.00MIllustrative baseline
Actual Cost$5.33MCumulative recorded cost
Estimate to Complete$7.80MBottom-up remaining work
Estimate at Completion$13.13MActual cost + ETC
Variance at Completion−$1.13MBudget − EAC
Cost Variance−$0.53MEarned value − actual cost
Schedule Variance−$0.20MEarned value − planned value

EAC is a bottom-up forecast, not BAC ÷ CPI. SPI measures earned-value progress against plan; it does not establish a completion date or critical-path delay. No agency, contract or client is represented.

Synthetic Review · 01

Six Periods. A Changing Forecast.

Earned progress trails plan while the bottom-up forecast rises. The trend tells the reviewer where to investigate, not why the movement occurred.

Cumulative Performance · USD Millions
0246010203040506

Dashed Teal: Planned ValueNavy: Earned ValueCopper: Actual Cost

USD millions. Values rounded to two decimals; EAC = actual cost + bottom-up ETC.
PeriodPlanned ValueEarned ValueActual CostETCEAC
01$0.60M$0.58M$0.60M$11.40M$12.00M
02$1.35M$1.30M$1.38M$10.72M$12.10M
03$2.20M$2.10M$2.28M$10.02M$12.30M
04$3.10M$2.95M$3.25M$9.30M$12.55M
05$4.00M$3.85M$4.30M$8.50M$12.80M
06$5.00M$4.80M$5.33M$7.80M$13.13M

Explain the Period 06 Movement

The prior $12.80M EAC rises by $0.33M: $0.20M for remaining labor mix and $0.18M for integration rework, partially offset by a $0.05M material estimate reduction. Unrounded movements reconcile to $13.13M.

Keep Assumptions Visible

The $12.00M budget is unchanged. The $7.80M ETC is a bottom-up estimate, assumes no additional scope change, and is subject to account-owner review. It is not a statistical forecast or a promised outcome.

Synthetic Review · 02

Trace the Variance to the Work.

Period 06 control-account rollup · USD millions
AccountEarned ValueActual CostCost VarianceETC
Engineering$2.60M$2.95M−$0.35M$4.20M
Integration$1.40M$1.50M−$0.10M$2.30M
Program Support$0.80M$0.88M−$0.08M$1.30M
Program Total$4.80M$5.33M−$0.53M$7.80M

Engineering: Explain Before Reforecasting

The $0.35M unfavorable cost variance accounts for about 66% of the program’s cumulative cost variance. In this illustration, the working hypothesis is a more senior labor mix and additional rework. Validate hours, rates and earned-progress evidence before treating that hypothesis as the root cause. Neither CPI nor SPI alone establishes causation.

Action Register

Engineering CAM

Validate remaining hours and skill mix against the resource-loaded work plan.

Review: Before Period 07 forecast

Evidence: Approved hours/rates workbook and assumptions log

Integration Lead

Confirm rework scope and inspect schedule dependencies before proposing recovery.

Review: Next technical review

Evidence: Work-package estimate and schedule impact review

Program Finance

Reconcile the material estimate and record whether savings are supported.

Review: Period 07 close

Evidence: Source reconciliation and reviewed EAC bridge

All owners, deadlines and actions are illustrative. No client delivery or achieved result is represented. SPI is not a completion-date or critical-path measure.

Download the Synthetic Review Pack

Read the Signals Together

At period 06, earned value is $4.80 million against $5.00 million planned value and $5.33 million actual cost. CPI is 0.90 and SPI is 0.96. These are cumulative cost and earned-value schedule indicators; they do not identify a root cause on their own.

The bottom-up ETC is $7.80 million. Actual cost plus ETC produces a $13.13 million EAC, $1.13 million above the $12.00 million budget at completion.

Management Review Actions

  1. Reconcile actual labor, rates and earned progress at control-account level.
  2. Review the remaining work, resource plan and ETC assumptions with accountable owners.
  3. Inspect critical-path and schedule-health data before drawing completion-date conclusions.
  4. Record the response, decision owner and next review date.

EAC = AC + ETC; CPI = EV / AC; SPI = EV / PV; CV = EV − AC; SV = EV − PV; VAC = BAC − EAC. Values are rounded for display. The ETC is an illustrative planning assumption, not mechanically derived from CPI.